Nigeria’s oil output has declined both year-on-year and month-on-month, falling short of budget and OPEC targets, even as prices remain above the Federal Government’s benchmark.
Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, NUPRC, showed that total oil production, including condensate, dropped by 6.3 per cent year-on-year to 1.627 million barrels per day (bpd) in January 2026, from 1.737 million bpd recorded in January 2025.
On a month-on-month basis, output also declined by 5.4 per cent to 1.627 million bpd in January 2026 from 1.544 million bpd in December 2025, according to the Commission’s latest National Liquid Hydrocarbon Production Report.
The agency disclosed that the lowest and peak combined crude oil and condensate production during the month.
The agency stated: “Lowest and peak combined crude oil and Condensate were 1.59 million bopd and 1.82 million bopd respectively. The average crude oil production.”
The performance indicates that Nigeria did not meet its 2026 budget benchmark of 1.84 million bpd, which is also predicated on an oil price of $64.85 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,400 to the dollar.
Meanwhile, checks showed that global oil prices dipped to about $67 per barrel, down from nearly $70 per barrel in recent weeks, amid continued volatility in the international market.
Similarly, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, reported that Nigeria’s crude oil production, excluding condensate, fell by five per cent year-on-year to 1.459 million bpd in January 2026, compared to 1.539 million bpd in January 2025.
OPEC, which does not include condensate in its crude oil production figures, noted in its February 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report that the data were obtained through direct communication with member countries.
The report also showed that Nigeria fell short of its OPEC production quota of 1.5 million bpd for the period under review.
According to the NUPRC, Nigeria currently produces about 196,028 bpd of condensate.
