Key points:
Official CBN (NFEM) Rate: ₦1,384.5 / USD
Black-Market Rate: ₦1,465 / USD
Drivers: Appreciation in both the official and parallel market segments; Widening of the arbitrage margin between the two markets.
Top Tools: CBN Forex Portal, Aboki Fx
The Naira appreciated against the US Dollar in both the official and parallel markets. However, the gain in the official market was larger, causing the gap between the two markets to widen to ₦80.5, indicating a faster pace of appreciation in the regulated segment compared to the informal market.
FAQ
What’s the gap between CBN & black-market rates? The premium widened to ₦80.5, up from ₦79. This occurred because the Naira appreciated by ₦6.5 in the official market while gaining only ₦5 in the parallel market, leading to an increased spread between the two rates.
Will the naira strengthen further? The simultaneous appreciation in both markets is a positive signal. However, the widening gap suggests that while the official market is responding strongly to policy or supply improvements, the parallel market is appreciating at a slower pace, possibly due to persistent underlying demand pressures or different supply dynamics.
How do oil prices affect rates? While not directly mentioned, improved foreign exchange earnings from stable or rising oil prices are a typical source of the increased dollar supply that can drive appreciation in the official market. The faster gain in the official rate could reflect such improved liquidity from core sources like exports, which may take longer to filter into and impact the parallel market.
